Forecast sales by day and daypart, turn it into hours you can afford, and build a schedule that holds labor cost without cutting service.
By Rob Bruni, founder of OpsEdge Hospitality, twenty years running restaurants, bars, clubs and resorts. Updated November 2026.
Free printable: Weekly Labor Cost Control checklist (PDF)
Most restaurant schedules are last week's schedule with the names moved around. That is why labor cost drifts: the floor is staffed for the week you remember, not the week that is coming. Scheduling to a forecast means estimating sales by day and daypart first, converting that into the hours you can afford, and only then writing names into slots. This guide walks through all three steps with a worked example and the rules that keep the schedule from sliding back.
Food cost takes a re-cost and a menu change to move. Rent takes a lease renewal. Labor moves the week you decide it should, because the schedule gets written every week. Two points of labor on a $2 million restaurant is $40,000 a year, and most of it is in the first and last hour of shifts that were never matched to demand.
The schedule is also where service lives. Over-staffing is expensive, under-staffing is expensive in a different way, and both come from the same mistake: staffing to a guess. A forecast is a better guess, written down, that you can check against what actually happened and improve every week.
Every POS can export sales by day and by hour for the last eight to twelve weeks. That is all you need.
Eight weeks of history gets most operations within 10 percent of actual on a normal week. That is close enough to schedule to, and it gets better every week you compare forecast to actual.
Target labor percent is your hourly labor goal for that daypart (not total labor; salaried managers are scheduled separately). Loaded hourly rate is the average wage plus payroll taxes and benefits, usually wage × 1.15 to 1.25. Do this separately for front of house and back of house, because the rates and the targets differ.
A second way to get the same answer is sales per labor hour (SPLH): forecast sales ÷ SPLH target = hours. If your operation does $55 of sales per back-of-house hour on a good week, a $6,000 dinner forecast gives you 109 kitchen hours. SPLH is easier for managers to feel than a percent, and it transfers between weeks of different volume.
Whichever you use, the output is a number of hours per daypart per department. That number is the budget. The schedule has to fit inside it.
Friday dinner, full service restaurant
Six-week average Friday dinner sales: $7,800. A 40-top party is booked at 7 p.m.: add $1,400. Forecast: $9,200
Back of house target: 13% of sales at a $19.50 loaded rate. ($9,200 × 0.13) ÷ $19.50 = 61 kitchen hours
Front of house target: 9% of sales at a $14 loaded rate (tipped). ($9,200 × 0.09) ÷ $14 = 59 floor hours
Last Friday's schedule had 72 kitchen hours and 68 floor hours. The forecast says the same night, with a bigger party, can run on 20 fewer hours. Where they come from: two cooks who started at 2 p.m. now start at 3, one server who started at 4 now starts at 5:30, and the second bartender starts at 6 instead of 4.
That is $350 on one night from stagger alone, with the same number of people on the floor at 7:30 when the party sits. Across a week it is usually $1,000 to $2,000 for a restaurant this size, which is two to three points of labor.
The free prime cost calculator takes four numbers and shows your percent against the benchmark for your concept, plus what each point is worth in dollars over a year. No signup.
Open the calculator Get the weekly Excel sheet| Day | What happens |
|---|---|
| Monday | Last week's labor percent and sales per labor hour by daypart. Forecast versus actual. One lesson for next week. |
| Tuesday | Write next week's forecast by day and daypart. Convert to hours by department. |
| Wednesday | Build and post next week's schedule. Check everyone on pace for overtime this week and adjust Thursday through Sunday. |
| Daily | Yesterday's sales and hours on the manager log. Running labor percent for the week. |
The whole routine is about 90 minutes a week once the first two weeks are built. Our Employee Schedule and Labor Cost Tracker does the forecast-to-hours math and flags overtime as you build, and the Labor Forecast and Staffing Guide covers the daypart targets by concept. The labor cost guide goes deeper on what belongs in the labor number.
Every guide on this site is cut from a workbook or playbook we built for real operations. The paid versions hold the complete templates, formulas and training material, one-time purchase, Excel and Google Sheets.
See the Playbooks and Toolkits Browse the full catalogFree printable
Build the schedule to a dollar budget on Thursday, check it every morning, close it Monday. Includes a day-by-day labor worksheet. Two printable pages.
Here it is. We also sent a confirmation to your inbox.
Download the PDFFree tool: the sales per labor hour calculator turns next week's forecast into an hours budget for front and back of house. No signup.
Pull six to eight weeks of net sales by day and daypart from the POS, average each day of the week (dropping holidays and closures), adjust for known events, weather and bookings, and round to the nearest $100. Compare forecast to actual every Monday to improve it.
Hours available equals forecast sales times your target hourly labor percent, divided by the average loaded hourly rate (wage plus taxes and benefits). Do it separately for front and back of house. Sales per labor hour (forecast sales divided by an SPLH target) gives the same answer in a form managers find easier.
It varies by concept and wage levels, but many full service kitchens run $45 to $65 of sales per back-of-house hour and $70 to $110 per front-of-house hour. Use your own best weeks as the target rather than an industry figure.
At least one week, posted on the same day every week. Some cities require 14 days under predictive scheduling laws. Late or changing schedules are one of the top reasons hourly staff leave.
Check everyone's hours on Wednesday and adjust the back half of the week, require manager approval for shift swaps with an overtime check, and treat any overtime that is not on the posted schedule as a scheduling failure to fix, not a payroll surprise.
Yes, in their own section. If salaried managers are regularly covering line positions, the hourly schedule is short and the labor percent is hiding it. Put every hour someone works on the sheet.