March 17 is a Wednesday and the tournament starts around it. How to forecast the week, order kegs, staff the day games and keep control on the floor.
By Rob Bruni, founder of OpsEdge Hospitality, twenty years running restaurants, bars, clubs and resorts. Updated November 2026.
In 2027 St. Patrick's Day lands on a Wednesday, the same night as the second round of men's opening round games, and the first round of the tournament starts the next morning. For a bar, that is not one big day. It is five busy days in a row from Wednesday through Sunday, with a weekday lunch rush most bars do not normally staff for. This plan covers the calendar, how to forecast guests and drinks, a calculator for kegs and bartenders, the menu, staffing between games, control on the floor and how to count what the week cost.
Most years St. Patrick's Day is a single spike: plan it, staff it, count it the next morning. In 2027 the tournament runs straight into it. The men's tournament now opens with a 76 team field and twelve opening round games on Tuesday and Wednesday, March 16 and 17, before the first round on Thursday and Friday. The women's first round starts Friday. That means:
| Date (2027) | What is on | What it means for the bar |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, March 14 | Selection Sunday; clocks spring forward | Brackets go out and groups start planning where to watch. Post your game day plan this day. |
| Tue, March 16 | Men's opening round begins (12 games over two days) | Evening games. A soft start, useful as a dress rehearsal for staff and screens. |
| Wed, March 17 | St. Patrick's Day, plus the second night of men's opening round games | The biggest volume day of the stretch for most bars, on a weeknight. Lunch through close. |
| Thu, March 18 | Men's first round, day one | Games from midday into late night. Day bar staffing on a workday. |
| Fri, March 19 | Men's first round, day two; women's first round begins | Another full day of games running into a normal Friday night. |
| Sat to Sun, March 20 to 21 | Second round (men's); women's first round finishes Saturday | Weekend games on top of weekend business. |
| Thu to Sun, March 25 to 28 | Sweet 16 and Elite Eight | Fewer games, bigger audiences, especially if a local team is still in. |
| Sat, April 3 and Mon, April 5 | Final Four and men's championship | Two single big nights. Treat each like a smaller Super Bowl. |
Dates are from the published NCAA schedule; check tip times when the bracket comes out on Selection Sunday and build the staffing schedule from the actual games, especially any game with a local team.
Start from your own history, not a guess. Pull the POS for St. Patrick's Day and the first tournament weekend last year and write down covers or checks, sales, drinks sold by category and sales by hour. Then adjust:
Write the forecast for each day of the week as guests, drinks and the share of drinks in the busiest hour. Everything else in this plan, from the order to the schedule, comes from those three numbers.
A neighborhood bar with 120 seats and room to stand expects about 450 guests across the day on Wednesday, March 17, based on last year's checks and a Wednesday lift. Guests average three drinks. Draft is about 55 percent of drinks on the day, and the busiest hour carries about 22 percent of the day's drinks.
| Input | Value | Result | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guests through the door | 450 | Total drinks | 1,350 |
| Drinks per guest | 3 | Draft pints | 742 |
| Draft share of drinks | 55% | Half barrel kegs (at 110 sellable pints) | 6.8, so order 8 with one spare |
| Share of drinks in the peak hour | 22% | Drinks in the peak hour | 297 |
| Drinks one bartender can make in an hour | 70 | Bartenders on the well at peak | 4.2, so schedule 5 |
Eight half barrels with the spare, spread across the draft lines. Most bars split them between the stout, a light lager and one or two locals, rather than ordering eight of one beer. And five bartenders on the well in the peak hour, which is not the same as five bartenders all day: the schedule builds up to the peak and back down. The same math, run for Thursday and Friday with lower guest counts, tells you whether the Wednesday order covers the rest of the week or needs a second delivery.
Free calculator
Enter the guests you expect, how many drinks each one has, how much of it is draft and how busy the peak hour gets. It shows the drinks to prepare for, the kegs to order and how many bartenders the well needs at the peak. The worked example above is loaded.
Use 105 to 115 sellable pints for a half barrel, 52 to 57 for a quarter barrel and 35 to 38 for a sixth barrel. A bartender on a short, batched menu with draft and cans can make 60 to 80 drinks an hour; a full cocktail menu drops that to 30 to 40.
Keg yields in this guide use 16 ounce pints. If you pour a 20 ounce imperial pint of stout, use the smaller pint count for that keg.
| Keg | Volume | 16 oz pints on paper | Pints to plan on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half barrel | 15.5 gallons (1,984 oz) | 124 | 105 to 115 |
| Quarter barrel (pony) | 7.75 gallons (992 oz) | 62 | 52 to 57 |
| Sixth barrel | 5.16 gallons (661 oz) | 41 | 35 to 38 |
The Bar Inventory Par Sheet and Order Guide sets pars for every spirit, beer and wine, builds the order from what is on the shelf and shows usage week to week, so the count after St. Patrick's Day tells you exactly what the week cost. Excel and Google Sheets, one-time purchase.
See the Bar Inventory Par Sheet Free pour cost calculatorSchedule from the forecast by hour, not by the day. The scheduling guide covers the method; for this week, a few rules matter most:
High volume days reward control. Most of what goes wrong on St. Patrick's Day starts at the well when the bar is three deep:
The day after a big day is when most bars find out what really happened. Count the bar on Monday, March 22, after the first weekend, and treat the week as one period:
Five free calculators turn these guides into results in a few minutes: prime cost, food cost, labor cost, break-even and pour cost. Each one shows the gap to the benchmark for your concept in dollars a year. No signup.
Open the free calculators See the benchmarksNext on the calendar: Easter is March 28 and Mother's Day is May 9. The Mother's Day and Easter brunch plan covers both, and the full 2027 restaurant and bar calendar has every date after that.
Wednesday, March 17, 2027. It falls on the second night of the men's NCAA tournament opening round, and the first round starts the next day, Thursday, March 18.
Selection Sunday is March 14, 2027. The men's opening round is March 16 and 17, the first round March 18 and 19 and the second round March 20 and 21. The women's first round is March 19 and 20. The men's Final Four is April 3 in Detroit with the championship on April 5.
Multiply expected guests by drinks per guest and by the share that is draft to get draft pints, then divide by the sellable pints per keg (105 to 115 for a half barrel). Round up and add a spare. A bar expecting 450 guests at three drinks each with 55 percent draft needs about 743 draft pints, close to seven half barrels, so order seven plus one spare.
Work out the drinks in the busiest hour, then divide by what one bartender can make in an hour: 60 to 80 on a short menu of draft, cans and batched cocktails, 30 to 40 on a full cocktail menu. Add one barback for every two bartenders and a separate ID check at the door.
Schedule to the game windows instead of the whole day, stagger starts and cuts around the peak, keep one person on call for day games and check labor against sales at set times each day so the quiet stretches between games do not carry a full crew.